The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Time Trend or Speculative Episodes?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001) document a positive trend in idiosyncratic volatility during the 1962–1997 period. We show that by 2003 volatility falls back to pre-1990s levels. Furthermore, we show that the increase and subsequent reversal is concentrated among firms with low stock prices and high retail ownership. This evidence suggests that the increase in idiosyncratic volatility through the 1990s was not a time trend but, rather, an episodic phenomenon, at least partially associated with retail investors. Results from cross-sectional regressions, conditional trend estimation, stock-split events, and “attentiongrabbing” events are consistent with a retail trading effect. (JEL G11, G12, G14)
منابع مشابه
The Relationship between Lifecycle and Idiosyncratic Volatility with Emphasis on Fundamental and Information Uncertainty of Firms listed on the TSE
According to the importance and the increasing trend of idiosyncratic volatility in recent years, the study of factors affecting idiosyncratic volatility is one of the important issues in financial markets. So, the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between lifecycle and idiosyncratic volatility with emphasis on fundamental and information uncertainty. In this regard, 152 ...
متن کاملThe Time-Series Behavior and Pricing of Idiosyncratic Volatility: Evidence from 1926 to 1962
The recent literature on idiosyncratic volatility has documented three main empirical findings. First, Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001) show that idiosyncratic volatility exhibits an upward trend between 1962 and 1997. Second, Goyal and Santa-Clara (2003) find that aggregate measures of idiosyncratic volatility predict one-month-ahead excess market returns from 1962 to 1999. Third, Ang,...
متن کاملRealized Volatility, Liquidity, and Corporate Yield Spreads
I propose a bond-specific, time-varying friction measure of round-trip liquidity costs. The measure is robust to outliers in daily bond returns and accounts for the idiosyncratic information behind bond trading decisions. Using transactions from January 2004 to December 2010, I find that liquidity costs display a strong correlation with credit conditions and peaked during the sub-prime crisis. ...
متن کاملCapital Structure under Changing Uncertainty
We explain the puzzle of falling firm leverage during the period of decreasing aggregate volatility from 1970 – 2010 with a simultaneous increase in firm level volatility and varying degrees of firm access to public debt markets. By incorporating friction between public and private debt, a structural model where firms make financing policy decisions in presence of uncertainty can explain a sign...
متن کاملThe idiosyncratic volatility puzzle and mergers and acquisitions activity
This paper examines whether the puzzling negative relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and next month performance is affected by the intensity of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the market. Our results show that the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle is stronger in periods of high M&A activity than in periods of low M&A activity. Further analysis shows that the negative relations...
متن کامل